Economic Profiler -the US stock market analysis-CH version: GDP 負成長的意義

11/22/2008

GDP 負成長的意義

引用奇摩新聞部分資料

根據歷史資料顯示，1974年石油危機期間，同樣在第三季出現GDP負數的連續三季衰退期，當年台股加權指數最低點188點；隔年1975年第二季GDP開始轉正，季底大盤攻扺357點，漲幅高達九成。

2001年網路泡沫加上美國911事件，第二季也開始出現連續三季GDP負成長，當季指數低點4352點；隔年第一季GDP轉正，期間漲幅42%。

股價總是反映未來六個月的事情
現在的破底已經反應未來GDP負成長的故事, 如果2009的某一季有機會讓GDP成長轉正, 提前6個月進場布局將是歷史上聰明的選擇.

沒有留言:

張貼留言

歡迎發表心得:

Disclaimer:

This is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. The analysts may hold positions in the stocks or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. The the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results.